NOTE: A SPECIAL EDITION OF THE "FEINBERG FORECAST," FEATURING SCOTT'S FINAL PRE-NOMINATIONS FORECAST, WILL POST WEDNESDAY.
Every week through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter's awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new "Feinberg Forecast," a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, as well as a key for the various colors and acronyms that appear throughout them, scroll to the bottom of this post.)
NOTEWORTHY DEVELOPMENTS SINCE LAST WEEK'S FORECAST:
- The Producers Guild of America revealed its nominees for the 24th PGA Awards. The group, which nominates the producers of 10 films for its top prize, the Darryl F. Zanuck Producer of the Year Award in Theatrical Motion Pictures, included the six usual suspects -- Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty -- and divided its other four spots between two indie hits, Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom, and two big-scale blockbusters, Django Unchained and Skyfall (which becomes the first Bond film to ever score a PGA Award nom). Notably absent: The Dark Knight Rises and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (a bad sign because the PGA loves hits more than the Academy), Amour and The Intouchables (the PGA almost never nominates foreign language films) and The Master and The Impossible (which could have really used a PGA boost right about now).
- The Writers Guild of America revealed its nominees for the 65th WGA Awards. The group nominated five adapted screenplays and five original screenplays -- after disqualifying a considerable number of top Oscar contenders that failed to meet its stringent eligibility requirements. Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, The Perks of Being a Wallflower and Silver Linings Playbook were nominated for the best adapted screenplay WGA Award, but Anna Karenina, Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Les Miserables were not eligible for consideration. And Flight, Looper, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom and Zero Dark Thirty were nominated for the best original screenplay nod, but Amour, Django Unchained, The Impossible, Middle of Nowhere, Rust and Bone and Seven Psychopaths were not eligible.
- The Art Directors Guild revealed its nominees for the 17th ADG Awards. The group nominated the production design of five films in each of three categories: period film, contemporary film and fantasy film. The nominees included slam-dunks like Anna Karenina, Cloud Atlas, Les Miserables, Lfie of Pi and Lincoln and on-the-bubble hopefuls like Flight, The Impossible, Prometheus and Skyfall -- but not Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom or Snow White and the Huntsman, which many figured stood a decent shot.
- The Visual Effects Society announced that best director hopeful Ang Lee (Life of Pi) will receive its Visionary Award at the 11th VES Awards on Feb. 5. The award honors an individual "who has uniquely and consistently employed the art and science of visual effects to foster imagination and ignite future discoveries by way of artistry, invention and groundbreaking work."
- The National Society of Film Critics revealed the results of voting for its 47th NSFC Awards. The group loved Amour, honoring the Austrian Oscar entry with its prizes for best film, best director (Michael Haneke) and best actress (Emmanuelle Riva). Other major prizes were awarded as follows: best actor to Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), best supporting actor to Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike and Bernie), best supporting actress to Amy Adams (The Master) and best nonfiction film to The Gatekeepers.
- The Palm Springs International Film Festival held its 24th annual awards gala on Jan. 5. Many Academy members were on hand as prizes were awarded to a bunch of top Oscar contenders, including best picture hopeful Argo, best director hopefuls Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) and Robert Zemeckis (Flight), best actor hopefuls Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) and Richard Gere (Arbitrage); best actress hopefuls Helen Mirren (Hitchcock) and Naomi Watts (The Impossible); best supporting actress hopefuls Sally Field (Lincoln) and Helen Hunt (The Sessions); and composer Mychael Danna (Life of Pi). Some acceptance speeches went over better than others.
- The American Association of Retired Persons announced its top 10 films of 2012, which is noteworthy because its members share the same demographics as most members of the Academy. Alphabetically, they are: Amour, Argo, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Hitchcock, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Quartet, The Sessions, Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty.
- The U.S. Senate -- key members of which recently questioned the veracity of Zero Dark Thirty in a letter to its distributor, Universal Pictures -- announced that a formal probe will be opened to try to determine whether members of the intelligence community provided writer Mark Boal, a best original screenplay hopeful, and/or director Kathryn Bigelow, a best director hopeful, with classified intelligence, and, if so, whom.
- Lincoln -- and Lincoln -- got a lot of media attention on New Year's Day, which marked the 150th anniversary of the date on which the 16th president signed the Emancipation Proclamation, the passage of which is at the center of best director hopeful Steven Spielberg's acclaimed film.
- Best actress hopeful Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) graces the cover of the February edition of Vanity Fair, which will reach many Academy members -- either via subscription or newsstands -- just as they are sent their final Oscar ballots, on which Lawrence's name will almost certainly appear. An interview inside the magazine features comments from the actress that some have tried to frame as controversial, but truly are not.
THIS WEEK'S FORECAST:
BEST PICTURE
Front-runners
Lincoln (DreamWorks, 11/9, PG-13, trailer) AFI, IPA, PGA, SAG, WGA, HFPA, BFCA, ADG
Argo (Warner Bros., 10/12, R, trailer) AFI, IPA, PGA, SAG, WGA, HFPA, BFCA, ADG
Les Misérables (Universal, 12/25, PG-13, trailer) AFI, IPA, PGA, SAG, HFPA, BFCA, ADG
Silver Linings Playbook (The Weinstein Co., 11/21, R, trailer) AFI, IPA, PGA, SAG, WGA, HFPA, BFCA, FI
Zero Dark Thirty (Sony, 12/19, R, trailer) NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, AFI, IPA, PGA, WGA, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, ADG
Life of Pi (20th Century Fox, 11/21, PG, trailer) AFI, PGA, WGA, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, ADG
Amour (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/19, PG-13, trailer) LAFCA
Django Unchained (The Weinstein Co., 12/25, R, trailer) AFI, PGA, HFPA, BFCA, ADG
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Fox Searchlight, 6/27, PG-13, trailer) AFI, PGA, IPA, BFCA, FI
Moonrise Kingdom (Focus Features, 5/25, PG-13, trailer) AFI, PGA, WGA, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, FI
Major Threats
Skyfall (Sony, 11/9, PG-13, trailer) IPA, PGA, ADG
The Impossible (Summit, 12/21, PG-13, trailer) ADG
The Master (The Weinstein Co., 9/14, R, trailer) WGA, BFCA
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight, 5/4, PG-13, trailer) SAG, HFPA, ADG
The Intouchables (The Weinstein Co., 5/25, R, trailer)
Possibilities
Flight (Paramount, 11/2, R, trailer) WGA, ADG
The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros., 7/20, PG-13, trailer) AFI, ADG
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros., 12/14, PG-13, trailer) ADG
The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Summit, 9/21, NR, trailer)
BEST DIRECTOR
Front-runners
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Ben Affleck (Argo) IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) NBR, NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Ang Lee (Life of Pi) HFPA, BFCA
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) IPA, BFCA, FI
Major Threats
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Tom Hooper (Les Misérables) BFCA
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained) HFPA
Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master) LAFCA
Robert Zemeckis (Flight)
Possibilities
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight Rises)
Sam Mendes (Skyfall)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) FI
Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom) FI
Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey)
BEST ACTOR
Front-runners
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) NYFCC, BSFC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) NBR, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI
Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables) IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
John Hawkes (The Sessions) HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI
Denzel Washington (Flight) IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Major Threats
Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) LAFCA, IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Richard Gere (Arbitrage) HFPA
Jack Black (Bernie) HFPA, FI
Jamie Foxx (Django Unchained)
Possibilities
Omar Sy (The Intouchables) IPA
Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock)
Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson) HFPA
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Tom Holland (The Impossible)
BEST ACTRESS
Front-runners
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) LAFCA, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) NBR, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Naomi Watts (The Impossible) HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) LAFCA, BSFC, NYFCO, IPA, BFCA
Major Threats
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock) HFPA, SAG
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) BFCA
Maggie Smith (Quartet) HFPA
Rachel Weisz (The Deep Blue Sea) NYFCC, HFPA
Judi Dench (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel) HFPA
Possibilities
Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina) IPA
Meryl Streep (Hope Springs) HFPA
Emayatzy Corinealdi (Middle of Nowhere) FI
Mary Elizabeth Winstead (Smashed) FI
Frances McDormand (Promised Land)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Front-runners
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) NYFCO, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook) IPA, SAG, BFCA
Alan Arkin (Argo) HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) DCAC, IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Javier Bardem (Skyfall) IPA, SAG, BFCA
Major Threats
Eddie Redmayne (Les Misérables) IPA
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained) HFPA
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained) NBR, HFPA
John Goodman (Flight) IPA
John Goodman (Argo)
Possibilities
Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike) NYFCC, BFCA, FI
Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild) LAFCA
Samuel L. Jackson (Django Unchained)
Bryan Cranston (Argo)
Ewan McGregor (The Impossible)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Front-runners
Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables) NYFCO, IPA, DCAC, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Sally Field (Lincoln) NYFCC, BSFC, HFPA, SAG, BFCA
Helen Hunt (The Sessions) IPA, HFPA, SAG, BFCA, FI
Amy Adams (The Master) LAFCA, IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Major Threats
Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel) SAG
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy) HFPA, SAG
Ann Dowd (Compliance) NBR, BFCA, FI
Kelly Reilly (Flight)
Possibilities
Judi Dench (Skyfall) IPA, BFCA
Amanda Seyfried (Les Misérables)
Samantha Barks (Les Misérables) IPA
Kerry Washington (Django Unchained)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Lincoln (Tony Kushner) NYFCC, BSFC, IPA, WGA, HFPA, BFCA
Argo (Chris Terrio) LAFCA, IPA, WGA, HFPA, BFCA
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell) NBR, DCAC, IPA, WGA, HFPA, BFCA, FI
Life of Pi (David Magee) IPA, WGA, BFCA
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
Major Threats
Perks of Being a Wallflower (Stephen Chbosky) WGA, BFCA
Les Misérables (William Nicholson)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Ol Parker)
The Intouchables (Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano)
The Sessions (Ben Lewin) IPA
Possibilities
Quartet (Ronald Harwood)
Bernie (Richard Linklater)
The Dark Knight Rises (Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Philippa Boyens, Guillermo Del Toro, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh)
Cloud Atlas (Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski, Lana Wachowski)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Front-runners
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal) NYFCO, IPA, WGA, HFPA, BFCA
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino) HFPA, BFCA
The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson) IPA, WGA, BFCA
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson) IPA, WGA, BFCA, FI
Amour (Michael Haneke) BFCA
Major Threats
Looper (Rian Johnson) NBR, DCAC, WGA, BFCA
Flight (John Gatins) IPA, WGA, BFCA
The Intouchables (Eric Toledano, Olivier Nakache) IPA
Arbitrage (Nicholas Jarecki)
Middle of Nowhere (Ava DuVernay)
Possibilities
Seven Psychopaths (Martin McDonagh) FI
End of Watch (David Ayer)
Promised Land (Matt Damon, John Krasinski)
The Impossible (Sergio G. Sanchez)
Brave (Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Front-runners
Brave (Pixar, 6/22, PG, trailer) IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Wreck-It Ralph (Disney, 11/2, PG, trailer) NBR, IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Frankenweenie (Disney, 10/5, PG, trailer) NYFCC, LAFCA, BSFC, IPA, HFPA, BFCA
ParaNorman (Focus Features, 8/17, PG, trailer) DCAC, BFCA
Rise of the Guardians (DreamWorks Animation, 11/21, PG, trailer) IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Major Threats
The Painting (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (DreamWorks Animation, 6/8, PG, trailer) IPA, BFCA
Zarafa (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
Hotel Transylvania (Sony Animation, 9/28, PG, trailer) HFPA
Possibilities
From Up on Poppy Hill (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony Animation, 4/27, PG, trailer)
The Rabbi's Cat (GKIDS, TBA, TBA, trailer)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Front-runners
Searching for Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics, 7/27, PG-13, trailer) NBR, IPA, WGA, BFCA, CEH
The Gatekeepers (Sony Pictures Classics, 12/13, PG-13, clip) LAFCA , IPA
How to Survive a Plague (Sundance Selects, 9/21, TBA, trailer) BSFC, FI
Detropia (Loki Films, 9/7, TBA, trailer) CEH
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, trailer) WGA
Major Threats
Bully (The Weinstein Co., 3/30, PG-13, trailer) DCAC, BFCA
Chasing Ice (Submarine Entertainment, 11/9, PG-13, trailer) IPA
The Imposter (Indomina, 7/13, R, trailer) BFCA, CEH
Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry (Sundance Selects, 7/27, R, trailer) IPA
The Invisible War (Docurama, 6/22, NR, trailer) WGA, FI
Possibilities
Five Broken Cameras (Kino Lorber, 5/30, NR, trailer) CEH
The Waiting Room (International Film Circuit, 9/26, TBA, trailer) FI
The House I Live In (Charlotte Street Films, 10/5, NR, trailer)
This Is Not a Film (Palisades Tartan, 2/29, NR, trailer)
Ethel (HBO Documentaries, TBA, TBA, TBA)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Front-runners
Austria, Amour NBR, NYFCC, NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, HFPA, BFCA, FI
France, The Intouchables IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Denmark, A Royal Affair IPA, HFPA, BFCA
Switzerland, Sister FI
Chile, No
Major Threats
Norway, Kon-Tiki IPA, HFPA
Iceland, The Deep
Canada, War Witch IPA, FI
Romania, Beyond the Hills IPA
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Front-runners
Life of Pi NYFCO, DCAC, IPA, BFCA
The Master BSFC, IPA, BFCA
Lincoln IPA, BFCA
Skyfall LAFCA, IPA, BFCA
Zero Dark Thirty NYFCC
Major Threats
Beasts of the Southern Wild IPA, FI
Anna Karenina IPA
Cloud Atlas
Les Misérables BFCA
Moonrise Kingdom FI
Possibilities
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Argo
Samsara
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Front-runners
Anna Karenina IPA, BFCA
Cloud Atlas IPA, BFCA
Les Misérables IPA, BFCA
Lincoln BFCA
Snow White and the Huntsman IPA
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey BFCA
A Royal Affair IPA
Django Unchained
Mirror Mirror
The Dark Knight Rises
Possibilities
Argo
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Life of Pi
The Hunger Games
The Avengers
Prometheus
BEST FILM EDITING
Front-runners
Zero Dark Thirty LAFCA, IPA, BFCA
Lincoln BFCA
Argo BFCA
Les Misérables IPA, BFCA
Silver Linings Playbook IPA
Major Threats
The Master
Life of Pi BFCA
Django Unchained
Cloud Atlas IPA
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Impossible
Possibilities
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Dark Knight Rises
The Bourne Legacy
Flight IPA
Moonrise Kingdom
Samsara
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Front-runners
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey BFCA
Lincoln BFCA
Men in Black 3
Major Threats
Les Misérables BFCA
Hitchcock
Looper
Snow White and the Huntsman
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Front-runners
Lincoln (John Williams) IPA, HFPA, BFCA
The Master (Johnny Greenwood) DCAC, IPA, BFCA
Life of Pi (Mychael Danna) HFPA, BFCA
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Dan Romer, Benh Zeitlin) LAFCA, DCAC, IPA
Argo (Alexandre Desplat) IPA , HFPA, BFCA
Major Threats
Rise of the Guardians (Alexandre Desplat)
Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli) IPA, HFPA
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Howard Shore)
Skyfall (Thomas Newman) IPA
Zero Dark Thirty (Alexandre Desplat)
Cloud Atlas (Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer) HFPA
Possibilities
The Dark Knight Rises (Hans Zimmer)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Thomas Newman)
On the Road (Gustavo Santaolalla)
The Hunger Games (James Newton Howard)
The Impossible (Fernando Velazquez)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Front-runners
Anna Karenina IPA, BFCA, ADG
Les Misérables IPA, BFCA, ADG
Lincoln IPA, BFCA, ADG
Life of Pi BFCA, ADG
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey BFCA, ADG
Major Threats
Zero Dark Thirty ADG
Cloud Atlas DCAC, ADG
The Master LAFCA, IPA
Argo ADG
Django Unchained ADG
Skyfall ADG
The Dark Knight Rises IPA, ADG
Possibilities
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Flight ADG
The Impossible ADG
Prometheus ADG
A Royal Affair IPA
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ADG
Snow White and the Huntsman
BEST SOUND EDITING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Misérables IPA
Skyfall
Lincoln
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Zero Dark Thirty
The Avengers
The Impossible
Life of Pi IPA
The Master
Argo
Possibilities
Flight IPA
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games
BEST SOUND MIXING
Front-runners
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Misérables IPA
Skyfall
Lincoln
Major Threats
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Zero Dark Thirty
The Avengers
The Impossible
Life of Pi IPA
The Master
Argo
Possibilities
Flight
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Impossible
The Bourne Legacy
The Hunger Games
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Front-runners
Life of Pi IPA, BFCA
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey BFCA
Cloud Atlas IPA, BFCA
The Dark Knight Rises IPA, BFCA
Skyfall IPA
Major Threats
The Avengers BFCA
The Amazing Spider-Man
Snow White & the Huntsman
Possibilities
Prometheus IPA
John Carter
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Front-runners
Paperman (Disney)
Combustible (Sunrise, Inc.)
The Eagleman Stag (Royal College of Art)
Tram (Sacrebleu Productions)
Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare' (Gracie Films)
Major Threats
Adam and Dog (Lodge Films)
Dripped (ChezEddy)
The Fall of the House of Usher (Melusine Productions, R&R Communications Inc., Les Armateurs, The Big Farm)
Fresh Guacamole (PES)
Head Over Heels (National Film and Television School)
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Front-runners
The Education of Mohammad Hussein (Loki Films)
Open Heart (Urban Landscapes Inc.)
Kings Point (Kings Point Documentary, Inc.)
Mondays at Racine (Cynthia Wade Productions)
Paraiso (The Strangebird Company) CEH
Major Threats
Inocente (Shine Global, Inc.)
The Perfect Fit (SDI Productions Ltd.)
Redemption (Downtown Docs)
* * *
KEY
Contenders' names are followed, when appropriate, by acronyms of the major awards groups (see below) that have already named them winners (in orange) or nominees (in purple). Some nominations are still pending (they appear in italics).
ACE = 63rd Eddie Awards (TBA)
ADG = 17th Art Directors Guild Awards (Feb. 2, 2013)
AFI = 13th American Film Institute Awards (TBA)
ASC = 27th American Society of Cinematographers Awards (TBA)
BAFTA = 66th British Academy Film Awards (TBA)
BFCA = 18th Critics' Choice Awards (Jan. 10, 2013)
BSFC = 33rd Boston Society of Film Critics Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)
CAS = 49th Cinema Audio Society Awards (TBA)
CDG = 15th Costume Design Guild Awards (TBA)
CEH = 6th Cinema Eye Honors (Jan. 9, 2013)
DCAC = 11th Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Awards (Dec. 10, 2012)
DGA = 65th Directors Guild of America Awards (TBA)
FI = 26th Independent Spirit Awards
HFPA = 70th Golden Globe Awards (TBA)
IAFA = 40th Annie Awards (TBA)
IPA = 17th Satellite Awards (Dec. 16, 2012)
LAFCA = 38th Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards (TBA)
MPSE = 60th Golden Reel Awards (TBA)
NBR = 84th National Board of Review Awards (TBA)
NSFC = 47th National Society of Film Critics Awards (TBA)
NYFCC = 78th New York Film Critics Circle Awards (TBA)
NYFCO = 12th New York Film Critics Online Awards (Dec. 9, 2012)
PGA = 24th Producers Guild of America Awards (Jan. 26, 2013)
SAG = 19th Screen Actors Guild Awards (Jan. 27, 2013)
USC = 25th USC Scripter Awards (TBA)
VES = 11th Visual Effects Society Awards (Feb. 5, 2013)
WGA = 65th Writers Guild of America Awards (Feb. 17, 2013)
* * *
ABOUT SCOTT FEINBERG AND THE "FEINBERG FORECAST"
Scott Feinberg is one of the film industry's most trusted awards analysts and has one of the world's best track records at forecasting the Oscars, something that he has been doing since 2001. His best showings came in 2006 (when he correctly called 21 of 24 winners) and 2004 (when he correctly called 20 of 24 winners). He was the only pundit to project long-shot best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011).
Scott factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings at festivals or elsewhere), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated with the Academy), precursor awards (some awards groups have better track records than others of correlating with the Academy) and regular conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and voters).
Every week through the Oscars on Feb. 24, The Hollywood Reporter's awards analyst Scott Feinberg will release a new "Feinberg Forecast," a post in which he recaps the most noteworthy awards-related news of the past week and shares his latest assessment of the standings in each of the major awards categories. (For more information about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, as well as a key for the various colors and acronyms that appear throughout them, scroll to the bottom of this post.)