Multiplication matters,
especially when it comes to how movies perform at the box
office. Week in and week out, the media spotlight shines on
those movies that crack the top 10. And as soon as movies slip
out of the top spots, they are quickly forgotten.
But those opening-weekend numbers tell only part of the
story. Consider December's slate of releases, which are winding
down their runs.
The crude rule of thumb is that a movie will go on to gross
a multiple of 2.5 times its opening weekend. That, for example,
was the case with New Line's "The Golden Compass." Although it
opened in the top spot for the weekend of December 7, it
captured a disappointing $25.8 million and so went on to a
domestic take of just $70.1 million -- a multiple of 2.7.
Hit movies usually do better than that, of course. Warner
Bros.' "I Am Legend," the dominant player during the past
holiday season, opened to a commanding $77.2 million on its way
to $256.1 million. In its case, it achieved a solid 3.3
multiple.
But the real stories prove to be those movies that command
even higher multiples, hanging in there week after week. These
days, movies with family appeal often show the longest staying
power. Although Fox's live-action/animated "Alvin and the
Chipmunks" opened in second place -- overshadowed by the debut
of "Legend" -- it proved to be one of the Christmas season's
powerhouses. With an opening of $44.3 million, it eventually
grossed $215.3 million, achieving an enviable multiple of 4.86.
Disney's sequel "National Treasure: Book of Secrets" followed a
remarkably similar trajectory. After a $44.8 million opening,
it climbed to a domestic gross of $217.2 million. That
translated to a 4.85 multiple.
But viewed in terms of multiples, the biggest surprise
among the year-end releases proved to be Warners' "The Bucket
List," starring Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman as two old
codgers who refuse to gently go into that good night.
Initially released on just 16 screens on Christmas Day, it
was the movie that could get no respect. Critics were
dismissive, it scored a below-average 40% rating on
RottenTomatoes.com, and it struck out in a quixotic bid for
awards attention.
The film then went wide during its third weekend, fanning
out to 2,911 theaters when it suddenly shot up to No. 1 with a
$19.4 million gross. The rule of the multiple suggested that it
was heading for a gross of about $50 million.
But "Bucket List" defied expectations. During the first
half of its wide release, it rarely dropped by more than 25%
each weekend, displaying tenacious holding power. As it now
winds down, "Bucket List" has taken in $91 million domestically
after 13 weeks in wide release. And that computes to a multiple
of 4.69, which puts it right up there with "Alvin" and the
"Treasure" sequel in terms of drawing power. Produced for about
$45 million, it is well on its way to profitability. (As a
rough rule of thumb, movie theaters usually keep about half the
gross.)
What makes its success all the more impressive is that
"Bucket List" is just the sort of midrange movie that finds it
tough going in the overcrowded market. And though Warners often
has been criticized for failing to support such titles, in this
case it beat the odds by using a limited opening to platform
the film before its wide release and then by nurturing it
through an extended run.
In the end, by appealing to older audiences -- who don't
rush the box office on opening weekend but do manage to get in
there in their own sweet time -- "Bucket List" maximized its
multiple.
Reuters/Hollywood Reporter
In Theaters 
