Oscar Patrol: Best Supporting Actress, 16 Weeks To Go Until We Nominate the Female Galifianakis

Will Leitch
·Editor

Another great aspect of the Supporting categories at the Oscars: They represent the rare opportunities for comedic performances to be honored, from Whoopi Goldberg to Kevin Kline to Joan Cusack. (We were stunned to learn that she had been nominated for "In & Out.") We think a strong argument could be made for Zach Galifianakis for the first "Hangover," actually. This year, they might actually do it: With a thin field, Melissa McCarthy from "Bridesmaids" might be the perfect way to honor a film everybody likes but no one wants to actually award. At last, the cast of "Mike & Molly" gets its due. Thus, we continue our weekly -- hey, we do lots of posts every week; we need some evergreens! -- breakdown of major Oscar categories. (Here's our most recent Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor lists.) It's so early that this is absolute guesswork, no "locks" or anything. But now that the film festivals are starting, some humans have actually seen these movies. That always helps. Let's dig in, with the "Locks," those "On The Bubble," those "Still Holding Out Hope" and the poor souls who will have to make do with the "For Your Consideration" ads. Today: Best Supporting Actress.

LOCKS

None.

ON THE BUBBLE

Jessica Chastain, "The Help." She's as close to a lock as anyone, though we don't think she'll end up winning.

Keira Knightley, "A Dangerous Method." Many believe she should be a lead, but they won't be pushing her that way.

Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids." Hosting "Saturday Night Live" never hurts. Though her CBS show still feels like it could be her proverbial "Norbit."

Octavia Spencer, "The Help." An argument could be made that you could nominate the whole cast in this category.

STILL HOLDING OUT HOPE

Bérénice Bejo, "The Artist." Not sure we see it: They're gonna nominate two silent actors? This is showing a lot of faith in this movie breaking through.

Vanessa Redgrave, "Coriolanus." We know nothing about this movie, but Stu at Movieline has it high, so OK.

Shailene Woodley, "The Descendants." If the movie catches on, and it very well might.

INCLUDED SO THEY'LL KEEP BUYING FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION ADS

Sandra Bullock, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close."
Marion Cotillard, "Midnight In Paris."
Judi Dench, "J. Edgar."
Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs."
Emily Watson, "War Horse."

(Side Note: We've been doing these for a while and had not yet seen CinemaBlend's somewhat similar Oscar Eye charts until last week. They are very good and you should read those too.)

(Next Week: Best Director.)