Oscar Patrol, Best Picture: Here Comes ‘Grit’

Will Leitch
·Editor
Smoking is bad for you, sir. Paramount Pictures
Smoking is bad for you, sir. Paramount Pictures

The Golden Globes might not have been on board with "True Grit" -- even if it's likely because no one in the Foreign Press Association saw it -- but everyone else is. That includes audiences, who have already made it the highest grossing Coen brothers movie ever and will likely send it past the $100 million mark this Friday, if not before. It's looking like a lock, and some people even think it's the favorite. We're not ready to go that far. Let's dig in, with the "Locks," those "On The Bubble," those

"Still Holding Out Hope" and the poor souls who will have to make do

with the "For Your Consideration" ads.

Locks

"Black Swan." We thought it might have "The Wrestler" issue of being more about the performance than the movie, but that ship has sailed. We almost want to consider it a dark horse to win, though let's not get crazy.

"The

Fighter." Other than "Toy Story 3," it's probably the biggest crowd pleaser in the final 10.

"Inception." Nolan finally gets what was taken from him with "The Dark Knight."

"The King's Speech." As "Oscar-ready" as it seems to be, aren't we past this Automatic Period Piece Win phase? Isn't that more a cliche than anything else? "Shakespeare In Love" was a long time ago, and "The English Patient" was even longer.

"The Social Network." We still think it's going to win. It's just $6 million away from $100 million, and a re-release -- even with the film out on DVD next week -- could push it over the top.

"Toy Story 3." The last Best Picture winner to be the top-grossing movie of the year? 2003's "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King."

"True Grit." If you're counting at home, that's three Best Picture nominations in four years for the Coens. Those who claim to have predicted that after "Intolerable Cruelty" are lying.

On The Bubble

"127 Hours." The closest at the point to a lock, you still can't discount the "EWW GROSS HIS ARM" contingent.

"Blue Valentine." We still think there's a chance, particularly if both leads get nominated. But it still has to be stinging from missing out from the Independent Spirit Awards.

"The

Kids Are All Right." Might have looked wobbly for a while, but all the

ensemble nods and guild nominations are close to locking it in. Plus, it's going

to win the Golden Globe Best Musical or Comedy category, which will help, even if it's just

beating "Burlesque."

"The Town." The Producers Guild nod helped. But is it "Star Trek" or "The Blind Side"?

"Winter's Bone." We'd put this in 10th place right now. You can make an argument that "127 Hours," "Kids Are All Right" and this are all in, and we're just tossing out other names just to stay busy.

Still Holding Out Hope

"Another Year." We like to think that the Village Voice's Karina Longworth killed it.

"Biutiful." With each film, Alejandro González Iñárritu's rose loses just a little more bloom.

"Rabbit Hole." Some, notably Movieline's Stu VanAirsdale, think it has a chance. We don't see it.

"Somewhere." [loooooong take]

Included So They'll Keep Buying "For Your Consideration" Ads.

"Barney's Version."
"Casino Jack."
"Country Strong."
"Fair Game."
"For Colored Girls."
"Get Low."
"The Ghost Writer."
"Hereafter."
"I Am Love."
"Inside Job."
"How To Train Your Dragon."
"Love And Other Drugs."
"Made In Dagenham."
"Secretariat."
"Shutter Island."
"Somewhere."
"The Tourist."
"Waiting For Superman."
"The Way Back."