Oscar Patrol: Best Actor, 10 Weeks of Naked Fassbender Left

Will Leitch
·Editor

The 2012 Oscar nominations come out on Tuesday, January 24, exactly 10 weeks from today. Best Actor is already the most fascinating category, if just because, as the outstanding Mark Harris notes on Grantland, there are three major movie stars up for the award: George Clooney, Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt. That helps with ratings, of course, but, as he also notes, none of them feel like logical, "it's their turn" choices like, say, Al Pacino in "Scent of a Woman." We've done this once before: Let's dig in again, with the "Locks," those "On The Bubble," those "Still Holding Out Hope" and the poor souls who will have to make do with the "For Your Consideration" ads. Today: Best Actor.

LOCKS

George Clooney, "The Descendants." We're far from sold that he'll win, but this is an extremely likable performance in an extremely likable movie. He's the only one of those big stars who seems assured. We wouldn't count on much for "The Ides of March," though.

ON THE BUBBLE

Jean Dujardin, "The Artist." The ball's clearly already rolling. We'll see how it does when it actually reaches audiences. A feel-good pick across the board.

Leonardo DiCaprio, "J. Edgar." He's sturdy, competent and hard-working. Even though few like the movie. Feels like he'll be the consolation prize.

Michael Fassbender, "Shame." Fine, fine, it's NC-17. He's still amazing, and he even has some Hollywood cred with "X-Men: First Class." We bet he breaks through.

STILL HOLDING OUT HOPE

Gary Oldman, "Tinker, Tailor. Soldier, Spy." As Harris points out, he's the closest thing we have to a "it's his turn" guy in the race ... but he's hardly as beloved as a Pacino. Depends on how the movie does.

Brad Pitt, "Moneyball. " Some might have him higher. We just continue to think "Moneyball" the Oscar contender will fade by the time the votes come.

Woody Harrelson, "Rampart." The qualifying run might be too short, and the reviews on the film itself have been mixed. Still, showy role.

Michael Shannon, "Take Shelter." The movie didn't quite become the crossover hit some were hoping for, but he's got the cineaste vote, for sure.

INCLUDED SO THEY'LL KEEP BUYING FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION ADS

Matt Damon, "We Bought A Zoo."
Michael Fassbender, "A Dangerous Method."
Paul Giamatti, "Win Win."
Ryan Gosling, "Drive."
Ryan Gosling, "The Ides of March."
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, "50-50."
Jeremy Irvine, "War Horse."
Christoph Waltz, "Carnage."
Owen Wilson, "Midnight In Paris."

(Next Week: Best Actress.)