Box Office Predictor: Will “Moneyball” Outgross the A’s Payroll?

Why do people treat weekend box office as if it were an actual horse race, as if it somehow matters to us, the consumer, which faceless corporation makes another stray million more over a three-day span than another faceless corporation? We have no idea! But it's still fun. Welcome to this week's Box Office Predictor. Prepare thyself for random guessing about dollar figures so large that they become meaningless!

1. "Moneyball." (2,993 screens) The Oakland A's opening-day payroll for the 2011 season was $66,536,500. "Moneyball" is unlikely to come near that its opening weekend, but it should fly by in a couple of weeks, at the latest, after an opening weekend that should bring out sports and non-sports fans alike. Some people are underestimating this, we think; Pitt hasn't opened a movie wide at under $20 million in more than a decade, and we hardly think this movie-star turn is gonna change that. Guesstimate: $25 million.

2. "The Lion King 3-D." (2,330 screens) It's going away after this weekend, so rush out and see it while you can. Wait, you have three copies of this on DVD? C'mon, stay home, it's supposed to rain. Guesstimate: $18 million.

3. "Dolphin Tale." (3,507 screens) It has the ugliest use of 3-D we've seen since 3-D started taking over, though, to confess, Morgan Freeman looks fantastic in the extra dimension. Guesstimate: $16 million.

4. "Abduction." (3,118 screens) This is the worst movie we've seen all year. This is the "Zookeeper" of action movies. Except the animatronic apes are able to move their foreheads. Guesstimate: $13 million.

5. "Killer Elite." (2,986 screens) Jason Statham movies never open as big here as they do in other countries, though we're pretty sure if he would have starred in "Moneyball," it would have turned into a movie about performance enhancing drugs. Frankly, Taylor Lautner would have the same problem. Guesstimate: $10 million.